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Forecast verification · Aral region

How accurate is the forecast:
what we promised — and what actually happened

Forecast vs reality
11.4µg/m³ · MAE PM10on average the forecast misses by this much
94%of hours · status matchthe forecast landed in the correct danger level

Counted over 7800 matched forecast-vs-fact hours. Updated hourly — we publish the result even when it doesn’t flatter us.

By forecast horizon
HorizonMAE, µg/m³Status matchPairs
1 h ahead4.4 µg/m³97%400
2 h ahead5.1 µg/m³96%390
3 h ahead5.9 µg/m³96%380
4 h ahead6.8 µg/m³95%370
5 h ahead7.7 µg/m³95%360
6 h ahead8.3 µg/m³95%350
7 h ahead8.5 µg/m³94%340
8 h ahead8.8 µg/m³94%330
9 h ahead9.6 µg/m³93%320
10 h ahead10.5 µg/m³92%310
11 h ahead11.3 µg/m³92%300
12 h ahead12.1 µg/m³92%290
13 h ahead12.8 µg/m³92%280
14 h ahead13.3 µg/m³92%270
15 h ahead13.8 µg/m³93%260
16 h ahead14.8 µg/m³92%250
17 h ahead16.1 µg/m³91%240
18 h ahead17.3 µg/m³91%230
19 h ahead17.3 µg/m³91%220
20 h ahead16.7 µg/m³92%210
21 h ahead16.1 µg/m³93%200
22 h ahead15.4 µg/m³93%190
23 h ahead14.7 µg/m³94%180
24 h ahead13.9 µg/m³94%170
25 h ahead13.7 µg/m³94%160
26 h ahead16.3 µg/m³93%150
27 h ahead19.4 µg/m³93%140
28 h ahead20.1 µg/m³93%130
29 h ahead16.6 µg/m³94%110
30 h ahead11.8 µg/m³96%90
31 h ahead10.3 µg/m³96%70
32 h ahead10.1 µg/m³94%50
33 h ahead10 µg/m³90%30
34 h ahead10.1 µg/m³85%20
35 h ahead11.7 µg/m³90%10

The closer the hour, the more accurate the forecast — the shortest horizon has the smallest error.

Promised → happened
TimeSettlementHorizonPromised, µg/m³Happened, µg/m³Difference
06/13, 04:00Moynaq1 h ahead43.343.30 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Chimboy1 h ahead35.535.50 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Taxiatosh1 h ahead26.526.50 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Xoʻjayli1 h ahead26.526.50 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Nukus1 h ahead26.526.50 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Aralsk1 h ahead5.35.30 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Qazaly1 h ahead220.7220.70 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Konye-Urgench1 h ahead29.329.30 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Qongʻirot1 h ahead46.446.40 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Dashoguz1 h ahead16.816.80 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Moynaq2 h ahead43.343.30 µg/m³
06/13, 04:00Qongʻirot2 h ahead46.446.40 µg/m³
How we calculate it
  • On every hourly update the system remembers what the CAMS forecast promised for future hours. When that hour arrives, the freshest value recorded for it becomes the fact, and the pair is compared.
  • MAE is the mean absolute PM10 error in µg/m³. Status match is the share of hours when the forecast landed in the same danger level by the 55/155/355 µg/m³ thresholds.
  • An honest caveat: we compare the CAMS forecast against the CAMS analysis, not against ground stations — there are almost none in the region. This measures the model’s consistency over time, not absolute ground truth.