How much water reaches the Aral now — and how the region's climate is changing toward 2050.
Two rivers — two fates. The Amu Darya feeds the Greater (Southern) Aral — it keeps drying up. The Syr Darya feeds the Lesser (Northern) Aral — it is recovering thanks to the Kokaral Dam, which blocked the flow south.
Сырдарья→ Малый (Северный) Арал
Lesser Aral is recovering
1 210m³/s
+22,9% vs the 121-day average (984 m³/s)
Сырдарья · у Казалинска
Region climate · 2050 vs. 2020s
Temperature, Δ+2,0°C
Precipitation, Δ+2mm/yr
CMIP6 modelMRI_AGCM3_2_S
Temperature · 2020–2050
Precipitation · 2020–2050
Discharge → sea area. River inflow is the main driver of the Aral’s balance. In dry years the Amu Darya discharge at Nukus drops several-fold, the Greater Aral’s mirror shrinks and exposes new stretches of seabed — a source of salt dust for the settlements downwind. In the north the Kokaral Dam (2005) holds the Syr Darya flow within the Lesser Aral — its level and area are growing. Warming (Δ+2,0 °C by 2050) boosts evaporation and irrigation demand upstream. What’s real: both rivers’ discharge is GloFAS reanalysis and forecast (Open-Meteo Flood API); climate is a CMIP6 projection, model MRI_AGCM3_2_S (Open-Meteo Climate API). The system builds no direct hydrological “discharge → area” model — the link is shown as a risk factor, not a calculation.